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Ted Cruz Suspends CampaignFollow

#27 May 04 2016 at 11:08 AM Rating: Excellent
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Kasich is dropping out. TRUMP WINS! TRUMP WINS!

Also, starting to hear conservative demands to confirm Garland as Supreme Court Justice before Trump bombs and Clinton picks a more liberal nominee with a Democratic senate.

Edited, May 4th 2016 12:12pm by Jophiel
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#28 May 04 2016 at 11:14 AM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Kasich is dropping out.
Guess people responded to those fundraising emails in a less-than-positive way.

Shame, he was the only one I actually liked.
Jophiel wrote:
Also, starting to hear conservative demands to confirm Garland as Supreme Court Justice before Trump bombs and Clinton picks a more liberal nominee with a Democratic senate.
So much for letting the people decide.

Edited, May 4th 2016 1:18pm by lolgaxe
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#29 May 04 2016 at 11:28 AM Rating: Excellent
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One step closer...
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#30 May 04 2016 at 11:50 AM Rating: Good
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someproteinguy wrote:
One step closer...
Bill Watterson was a prophet.

Huh, apparently there's a whole reddit devoted to Donald and Hobbes. I like this one, too.

Edited, May 4th 2016 1:58pm by lolgaxe
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#31 May 04 2016 at 12:06 PM Rating: Good
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someproteinguy wrote:
Speaking of Scott Adams, he's been following this whole Trump thing with great interest, analyzing things from the perspective of campaign moves with a focus on business. Agree or not, it's an interesting read every once in a while.
#32 May 04 2016 at 12:08 PM Rating: Excellent
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lolgaxe wrote:
Huh, apparently there's a whole reddit devoted to Donald and Hobbes. I like this one, too.
Huh, so there is.

Thank goodness it's small or that would have been my entire day right there. Smiley: lol
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#33 May 04 2016 at 12:32 PM Rating: Excellent
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The One and Only Poldaran wrote:
someproteinguy wrote:
Speaking of Scott Adams, he's been following this whole Trump thing with great interest, analyzing things from the perspective of campaign moves with a focus on business. Agree or not, it's an interesting read every once in a while.
That's good stuff, does nothing to help my general opinion of people, but nothing that came from that man's head ever did anyways. Smiley: rolleyes
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#34 May 04 2016 at 2:01 PM Rating: Decent
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Yodabunny July 26 2015 wrote:
You have no idea how much I want to see Trump win the primaries.
#35 May 04 2016 at 2:09 PM Rating: Excellent
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The One and Only Poldaran wrote:
Agree or not, it's an interesting read every once in a while.

I disagree with his analysis of what sort of risk people are looking for. People attracted to Trump because he wants to build a giant wall or track Muslims aren't the same people who want Sanders' carbon tax or a $15 minimum wage. Lumping them all together as "change" votes and setting that against Clinton is flawed (for one thing, most Sanders supporters have already said they'd vote for Clinton). Right now, for instance, Obama is at 51% approval (+7). That's where Clinton's risk argument comes in: "Hey, most of you approve of the job the president is doing and I'm going to do much the same. Want to take a chance that you're going to like Trump more?"

Fortunately, Trump and the GOP have provided endless reels of reasons not to take that risk. The ads of Republican politicians calling Trump insane, racist, dangerous, etc from the primaries will be great stuff.
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#36 May 04 2016 at 3:59 PM Rating: Default
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Demea wrote:
Also, in before gbaji argues that Trump is and always was a true Scotsman who will be competitive against Hillary in November.


Nope. I've always said that Trump isn't a conservative, but a populist wearing a Republican suit. The problem is that there's a decent chance that he will beat Clinton in November, and all those people laughing as they went to the polls to vote for Trump thinking they were sabotaging the GOP will certainly have accomplished that, but sabotaged themselves even more in the process. What's funny is that I really think that the long process has helped Trump in this regard. It's meant that the media has had to play off his oddities and absurd statements so as to not really hurt him (more laughing with him than at him). But they've been doing this for so long now that I'm not sure they can reverse that and now switch to seriously condemning his statements like they should have been from day one. They'll try, but the public has now become so used to just laughing off everything that comes out of Trumps mouth as just an eccentricity and not something threatening, that I don't think that will work.

And Clinton will just have a hard time going after him. Again, he's been so completely transparent about his offensive nature, and had it not harm him politically, that she more or less has nothing to throw at him that hasn't already been used (and rejected by the public as mattering). She, on the other hand, has been more or less treated with kid gloves by Sanders, and so there's a ton of "new" material (new to the general voting public, that is).

While I'm loathe to say it, I wouldn't make the assumption that a Trump nomination spells victory for Clinton and the Democrats at all. I dislike entirely what he says and almost certainly whatever the heck his platform is (if he ever gets around to forming one), but he does have a pretty massive populist movement behind him, and a completely willingness to own himself, warts and all. That's a hard target to attack, and may be a hard target to beat.
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#37 May 04 2016 at 4:07 PM Rating: Decent
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lolgaxe wrote:
So Kasich is taking advantage of now being the second place choice by sending out email to secure more funding. I guess the only real question left is how the RNC is planning on changing the "eight state minimum" rule 40 without having it work in Trump's favor.


The rule is meaningless. This is actually one of my pet peeves about this, and how it's been reported (and I think I mentioned this in another thread, but I'll repeat it anyway). Rule 40 only applies to vote outcomes during the first couple rounds, when pledged delegates matter. It simply says that you can't win the vote unless you have won a majority of delegates in 8 state primaries. Um... But no one's going to win the vote without having reached that number anyway, right? So it's purely procedural and perception. It was enacted to prevent a scene on the convention floor when tallying up votes for different candidates and announcing them (on TV). They didn't want Rand Paul's name, or the number of delegates who voted for him to be publicly counted, so that it would look like a sweep for Romney (the whole "united party" bit). That's it. It has absolutely zero effect on who can win the nomination. And here's why:

Any rule can be changed by a majority of the delegates at any point during the convention. So, if we speculate that in a contested convention, no one has a majority of pledged delegates, and no one wins in the first couple rounds. At this point, all the delegates are unbound. They can vote for anyone. Let's assume that a majority of delegates get together and decide to vote for Kasich. Um... If a majority votes for him, then the same majority can nulllify the rule. It doesn't matter what happened in the primaries at that point, and rule 40 just doesn't matter. A majority gets to decide. So whomever the majority decides will win, because they are a majority and therefore can change any rule they want that may arbitrarily get in the way.

Everyone keeps talking about this rule as though it has any effect on who can or can't win. It doesn't. It only prevents official counting of the votes for minority delegate candidates who didn't win enough primaries. Nothing else. It doesn't even effect how the delegates must vote. They still vote for the candidate they are pledged for. Their votes just don't count in terms of who can win, but again, that's meaningless because their votes would not be for a candidate who could possibly have enough delegates to win anyway. It only matters in terms of the count on the board and what's read off as a tally for the public to see.
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#38 May 04 2016 at 4:40 PM Rating: Excellent
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Trump didn't win the nomination because of people sabotaging the primaries. He won because the GOP is less of a conservative party and more a party of nationalists and Trump appealed to them. Grow up and stop trying to blame it on anyone but the people who spawned him.
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#39 May 04 2016 at 4:58 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Fortunately, Trump and the GOP have provided endless reels of reasons not to take that risk. The ads of Republican politicians calling Trump insane, racist, dangerous, etc from the primaries will be great stuff.


And largely ineffective. Because Trump isn't running as a rank and file Republican. The negative opinion of him by the rank and file is a positive for him, and resonates with his supporters. All that'll do is up his support among the fairly large number of people in the middle who think both parties are more or less the same, just with different labels. That may be irrational to you and I, but a startling number of people do actually believe this. They'll just lump Clinton in with the other professional politicians who oppose what Trump represents. Which honestly, wont be much of a leap for them to make.

Don't get me wrong, I'd like it to be effective, but I suspect it wont. Because I'd have liked it to have been effective for the last 9 months. But it hasn't. There's no reason to think that it'll start working now. The more he's attacked for being unprofessional, unpolished, saying non-pc things, etc, the stronger he seems to get. Again, I'm just not sure how that magically changes now. Maybe it will. But I wouldn't count on it.
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#40 May 04 2016 at 5:01 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Trump didn't win the nomination because of people sabotaging the primaries. He won because the GOP is less of a conservative party and more a party of nationalists and Trump appealed to them. Grow up and stop trying to blame it on anyone but the people who spawned him.


It's not the GOP though. That's what you're not getting. Trump has just effectively highjacked the GOP party nomination, but he didn't win with GOP party support. Therefore, those who don't like the GOP will like him. Those who are in the GOP and need him to go along as a cohesive party, will have to support him, regardless of their own feelings about him. Voters will not and do not view him as a standard conservative Republican, and trying to attack him like he is one will not work.
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#41 May 04 2016 at 5:09 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
It's not the GOP though. That's what you're not getting. Trump has just effectively highjacked the GOP party nomination, but he didn't win with GOP party support. Therefore, those who don't like the GOP will like him.

He did it with GOP voter support, that's what you refuse to accept because you'd rather live in a fantasy world where you don't have to accept what the party is and just blame it all on fictitious strategic voters who somehow gave Trump overwhelming victories in open and closed primaries across the nation. He won because Republican voters across the nation liked his nationalist message and valued his jingoism and xenophobia over any supposed conservative questions.

He didn't have the support of the "party" (i.e. the RNC leaders) but he sure as hell appealed to the Republican voters. Pretending that this isn't true is just pathetic denial.

Edited, May 4th 2016 6:11pm by Jophiel
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#42 May 04 2016 at 5:12 PM Rating: Good
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The One and Only Poldaran wrote:
Demea wrote:
but at least she's a politician
You say that like it's a good thing. Smiley: laugh

I'm one of those crazy people who thinks that a primary component of a good President is being Head of State to other nations. Can you imagine Trump at a NATO summit?

"We're gonna build a wall in eastern Ukraine, and we're gonna get Russia to pay for it!"
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I managed to be both retarded and entertaining.

#43 May 04 2016 at 5:20 PM Rating: Excellent
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Demea wrote:
Can you imagine Trump at a NATO summit?

"We're gonna build a wall in eastern Ukraine, and we're gonna get the European members of NATO to pay for it or else the US will leave the alliance!"

Fixed for Trumpian accuracy.
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#44 May 04 2016 at 5:32 PM Rating: Excellent
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Guess this one was already in the can...

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#45 May 04 2016 at 6:06 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
Trump didn't win the nomination because of people sabotaging the primaries. He won because the GOP is less of a conservative party and more a party of nationalists and Trump appealed to them. Grow up and stop trying to blame it on anyone but the people who spawned him.


It's not the GOP though. That's what you're not getting. Trump has just effectively highjacked the GOP party nomination, but he didn't win with GOP party support. Therefore, those who don't like the GOP will like him. Those who are in the GOP and need him to go along as a cohesive party, will have to support him, regardless of their own feelings about him. Voters will not and do not view him as a standard conservative Republican, and trying to attack him like he is one will not work.


He didn't hijack the GOP. The GOP has been hijacking the Republican voters for years.
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#46 May 05 2016 at 9:12 AM Rating: Good
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Demea wrote:
I'm one of those crazy people who thinks that a primary component of a good President is being Head of State to other nations.
You don't necessarily have to be a politician to be a good leader. I'm sure that there are plenty of CEOs and retired generals who are qualified enough to do the job. And, at least every once in a while, we need a different perspective. I'm not saying Trump will necessarily be great, I just like him more than any of the professional politicians.

I especially dislike Clinton because she's everything I dislike about establishment Republicans without being any of the things I like in conservatives. And she's a Democrat, so a lot of people ignore her ridiculous ties to massive corporations.
#47 May 05 2016 at 9:30 AM Rating: Good
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Trump, of course, doesn't need to be hijacked by corporate interests because he already has plenty of his own to serve at the American people's expense.
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#48 May 05 2016 at 9:52 AM Rating: Good
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When he's President, he'll replace all the Bibles in hotels with Sharper Image catalogues.
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#49 May 05 2016 at 10:13 AM Rating: Good
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Kavekkk wrote:
Trump, of course, doesn't need to be hijacked by corporate interests because he already has plenty of his own to serve at the American people's expense.
Unlike Clinton, he has no shot of getting away with any of it if he tried. Virtue signalling Dems and GOP will be all over him. Unless he focuses on things that he can make politically expensive to oppose for one side or the other, he won't really accomplish much.

And, you know, I'm okay with that.
#50 May 05 2016 at 4:50 PM Rating: Good
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The One and Only Poldaran wrote:
Demea wrote:
I'm one of those crazy people who thinks that a primary component of a good President is being Head of State to other nations.
You don't necessarily have to be a politician to be a good leader.

Actually knowing stuff like the difference between Sunnis and Shiites and why they want to kill each other is probably going to be one of many important geo-political factoids to know over the next four years. Trump's wild flailing is almost worse than guessing at random.
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#51 May 05 2016 at 5:50 PM Rating: Excellent
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Trump's Hispanic outreach starts with him Tweeting a photo of himself poised over a taco bowl and saying "Happy #CincoDeMayo! The best taco bowls are made in Trump Tower Grill. I love Hispanics!" Smiley: laugh

The NYT notes that:
Quote:
The Tower Grill does not, in fact, offer taco bowls, but the Trump Café has them on Thursday’s Cinco de Mayo menu as a “Taco fiesta!”
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