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#27 Mar 01 2014 at 2:22 AM Rating: Good
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Stalker rdmcandie wrote:
Or Russia puts this little Coup to rest, puts the democratically elected government back in power and America can find another way to get its Anti missile defense system into Eastern Europe because this hasn't worked the last 3 times they tried.


I said that; a Russian puppet state solution.
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#28 Mar 01 2014 at 3:22 AM Rating: Decent
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Holy ****, it's actually happening. I wondered whether or not the article I read about Russia potentially taking a piece of the Ukraine amongst the chaos was just some sensationalist BS, and it's actually starting to look like it's a real thing.

What I'm left wondering, is what the consequences of this could be in the long run. If Russia annexes the Crimea, what then? Do we begin moving towards a renewed Cold War? Does it just happen and eventually get accepted by the world and we kind of just let it pass and forget about it? Can it even happen at all?

God I love when this kind of thing happens*

* Speaking strictly from the perspective of looking at things from the perspective of future history buffs. I don't like the destruction and violence, but damn does it ever make for great history books.
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#29 Mar 01 2014 at 6:03 AM Rating: Decent
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Driftwood wrote:
Holy sh*t, it's actually happening. I wondered whether or not the article I read about Russia potentially taking a piece of the Ukraine amongst the chaos was just some sensationalist BS, and it's actually starting to look like it's a real thing.

What I'm left wondering, is what the consequences of this could be in the long run. If Russia annexes the Crimea, what then? Do we begin moving towards a renewed Cold War? Does it just happen and eventually get accepted by the world and we kind of just let it pass and forget about it? Can it even happen at all?

God I love when this kind of thing happens*

* Speaking strictly from the perspective of looking at things from the perspective of future history buffs. I don't like the destruction and violence, but damn does it ever make for great history books.



The cold war never really ended, it just moved more into the economic side of things not weapons stockpiling (military confrontation is redundant these days in mostly any capacity) and will continue to escalate as Russia becomes more of an economic power. You have to remember that Russia is only 20 years removed from complete governmental reorganization. If Russia annexes Crimea nothing really changes other than the region will properly fall under the name Russia. By rights that should be Russian anyway but Ukraine got all but hurt when Russia tried to repeal Khrushchev transfer of control. (it used to be controlled by the USSR proper, and was transfered to jurisdictional control under Khrushchev). But thats neither here nor there.

I imagine Russia is just doing what it always does. Protect ethnic Russians in the area, and defend against its economic interests. I wager once everything calms down Crimea will still wave the blue and gold, and Kiev will be pro Russian because the majority of Ukraine is pro Russian.



Edited, Mar 1st 2014 7:05am by rdmcandie
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#30 Mar 01 2014 at 8:11 AM Rating: Decent
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Stalker rdmcandie wrote:
Or Russia puts this little Coup to rest, puts the democratically elected government back in power and America can find another way to get its Anti missile defense system into Eastern Europe because this hasn't worked the last 3 times they tried.


i think I understand where this stupidity comes from. You hold democracy as some sort highest virtue. Just the fact that someone was democratically elected does not give them unlimited power mandate. The buck stops with the people. They just said that they are taking the power away.

The only interesting thing here is that they managed to do that;

Candie, any chance you could tell me where you grew up? I am trying to understand how you could have come to such amusing conclusions.

Edited, Mar 1st 2014 9:12am by angrymnk

Edited, Mar 1st 2014 9:14am by angrymnk
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#31 Mar 01 2014 at 8:15 AM Rating: Excellent
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#32 Mar 01 2014 at 8:40 AM Rating: Decent
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angrymnk wrote:
Stalker rdmcandie wrote:
Or Russia puts this little Coup to rest, puts the democratically elected government back in power and America can find another way to get its Anti missile defense system into Eastern Europe because this hasn't worked the last 3 times they tried.


i think I understand where this stupidity comes from. You hold democracy as some sort highest virtue. Just the fact that someone was democratically elected does not give them unlimited power mandate. The buck stops with the people. They just said that they are taking the power away.

The only interesting thing here is that they managed to do that;


"They" the minority has taken power away yes. Thats why its called a coup. Do you even know why the people took to the streets, let alone burnt their capital down? Also do you know what an ultimatum is?





Edited, Mar 1st 2014 10:07am by rdmcandie
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#33 Mar 01 2014 at 9:52 AM Rating: Decent
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From a purely geographical standpoint, I wonder if there's a Crimea River...
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#34 Mar 01 2014 at 10:21 AM Rating: Good
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#35 Mar 01 2014 at 10:32 AM Rating: Excellent
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"Crimea River" was one of the examples used in the old EQ rules for an "illegal" character name due to puns or names forming sentences/phrases. Smiley: schooled
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#36 Mar 01 2014 at 11:51 AM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
"Crimea River" was one of the examples used in the old EQ rules for an "illegal" character name due to puns or names forming sentences/phrases. Smiley: schooled


No roleplaying.
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#37 Mar 01 2014 at 1:08 PM Rating: Good
Sarah Palin wrote:
Yes, I could see this one from Alaska. I’m usually not one to Told-Ya-So, but I did, despite my accurate prediction being derided as “an extremely far-fetched scenario” by the “high-brow” Foreign Policy magazine. Here’s what this “stupid” “insipid woman” predicted back in 2008: “After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama’s reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia’s Putin to invade Ukraine next.”


It's got to sting when Palin's riffing off you.
#38 Mar 01 2014 at 2:26 PM Rating: Good
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If NATO does not intervene here, we will likely see an ugly bout of nuclear proliferation.
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#39 Mar 01 2014 at 2:29 PM Rating: Decent
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Stalker rdmcandie wrote:
angrymnk wrote:
Stalker rdmcandie wrote:
Or Russia puts this little Coup to rest, puts the democratically elected government back in power and America can find another way to get its Anti missile defense system into Eastern Europe because this hasn't worked the last 3 times they tried.


i think I understand where this stupidity comes from. You hold democracy as some sort highest virtue. Just the fact that someone was democratically elected does not give them unlimited power mandate. The buck stops with the people. They just said that they are taking the power away.

The only interesting thing here is that they managed to do that;


"They" the minority has taken power away yes. Thats why its called a coup. Do you even know why the people took to the streets, let alone burnt their capital down? Also do you know what an ultimatum is?

Edited, Mar 1st 2014 10:07am by rdmcandie


Do you? It is a real question; do you know why people got angry and decided to withstand cold, hunger and death squads?

from google ( all hail google )

coup
koÍžo/
noun
noun: coup; plural noun: coups; noun: coup d'état; plural noun: coups d'état; plural noun: coup d'états

1.
a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government.

Do you see why it is relevant? It was not illegal. The government lost its mandate from the people. People replaced it. I think you are just confused about the definition. But I am nice so I gave it you above. You are welcome.

As for the why...

The poor in the US and Canada are nowhere near the same level of poor as those in some former soviet republics and/or,and I use the term loosely, modern Russia. Once you understand this, you may understand the reason a better. I am not saying you will. You already have proven as a person who is not able to connect the dots on basic sh*t. But I remain hopeful...

Note that I am purposefully not delving into the Ukraine's touted multivector strategy" ( which is mostly bs ), I am simply saying. People, people who were an actual intellectual elite and not a part of an oligarchy, got pissed. Note that the new cabinet has a journalist and a medic in posts relevant to their expertise.

I have stories about Russia ( soviet and current ). Some are from family members, some from trips from business people who had to deal with the their Russian counterparts ( that's where I first heard about krysha ), some are just anecdotes. I will not say any of them.

But what you need to understand is... that you do not understand Russia. And you probably won't. It is a very different world from the one you live in. Things that people there accept as normal is something that would make you, at the very least, cringe. And no, I am not talking youtube's "best of Russian drivers".

Edited, Mar 1st 2014 3:29pm by angrymnk

Edited, Mar 1st 2014 4:14pm by angrymnk
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#40 Mar 01 2014 at 2:31 PM Rating: Excellent
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I like how Obama's reaction to Georgia is to blame and not the complete non-reaction from the actual president at the time. And I won't even lay a bunch of blame on Bush for that one because, again, we don't have any real sway in that part of the world. What exactly are we going to threaten? We're never ever going to enter a war with Russia over South Ossetia or Crimea, no allies would back us up in a military action in South Ossetia or Crimea, etc. Does anyone really think Germany or France or the UK is going to commit military resources to an action with the US against Russia in Crimea?

The problem with harsh language and "strong stances" is that you need something to back them up. There's no stick here. There's no chance at a stick. There's no way in hell the American people would back a military venture against Russia for Ukraine's sovereignty in Crimea. Since we're boasting of past prognostications, I'll note that I alluded to this back in 2008 about the expansion of NATO and how we were taking in (or in talks to take in) nations that I didn't think we'd have the domestic resolve to defend if it came to it.

Edited, Mar 1st 2014 2:36pm by Jophiel
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#41 Mar 01 2014 at 2:39 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
I like how Obama's reaction to Georgia is to blame and not the complete non-reaction from the actual president at the time. And I won't even lay a bunch of blame on Bush for that one because, again, we don't have any real sway in that part of the world. What exactly are we going to threaten? We're never ever going to enter a war with Russia over South Ossetia or Crimea, no allies would back us up in a military action in South Ossetia or Crimea, etc. Does anyone really think Germany or France or the UK is going to commit military resources to an action with the US against Russia in Crimea?

The problem with harsh language and "strong stances" is that you need something to back them up. There's no stick here. There's no chance at a stick. There's no way in hell the American people would back a military venture against Russia. Since we're boasting of past prognostications, I'll note that I alluded to this back in 2008 about the expansion of NATO and how we were taking in (or in talks to take in) nations that I didn't think we'd have the domestic resolve to defend if it came to it.


I love how everyone's is already saying everything is fine, nothing is going to happen because nothing happened back then. That was then, this is now, things keep changing all the time. The only difference is that Putin saw something that works well and happens to be a fast learner.

If the EU wants to survive in its current shape, it better shapes up, otherwise it may eventually find out that Germany has a lot of ethnic Russians as well. Then again, Germany is already trying to get Silesia saying the exact same thing so I guess it is the new way to grab land.

Me personally? I am worried. Anyone with a half a brain would be.
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#42 Mar 01 2014 at 2:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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angrymnk wrote:
I love how everyone's is already saying everything is fine, nothing is going to happen because nothing happened back then.

I never said everything was fine or that nothing would happen. I said that our ability to stop something from happening was greatly curtailed because harsh language wasn't going to stop, we have little recourse via the UN with Russia & China on the Security Council, I doubt any of our European allies are interested in shedding blood over Crimea and Russia is large and independent enough that we're not going to slap some sanctions on them and see a difference. Which is bad news if you're a guy in Crimea who doesn't want Russians on his street but, hey, that's how it seems to be going.

Had Ukraine joined NATO back in the day this would be different if only because of the "we have a mutual defensive alliance" factor but since Yanukovych backed out of that in 2010, it's harder to justify a NATO reaction to the US/UK/EU civilian population today.
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#43 Mar 01 2014 at 2:57 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
angrymnk wrote:
I love how everyone's is already saying everything is fine, nothing is going to happen because nothing happened back then.

I never said everything was fine or that nothing would happen. I said that our ability to stop something from happening was greatly curtailed because harsh language wasn't going to stop, we have little recourse via the UN with Russia & China on the Security Council, I doubt any of our European allies are interested in shedding blood over Crimea and Russia is large and independent enough that we're not going to slap some sanctions on them and see a difference. Which is bad news if you're a guy in Crimea who doesn't want Russians on his street but, hey, that's how it seems to be going.

Had Ukraine joined NATO back in the day this would be different if only because of the "we have a mutual defensive alliance" factor but since Yanukovych backed out of that in 2010, it's harder to justify a NATO reaction to the US/UK/EU civilian population today.


I apologize; I am not sure why I responded in this manner.

You are right about lack of any real options. UN won't help. Sanctions are unlikely. EU does not want to do ****. I know, you know, Putin knows.

That is not news. This is mostly how world war two came into being. I just don't want another Chamberlain moment.
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#44 Mar 01 2014 at 2:59 PM Rating: Good
Timelordwho wrote:
If NATO does not intervene here, we will likely see an ugly bout of nuclear proliferation.


Yeah; relevant background for anyone that doesn't know it, Ukraine gave up its nuclear ******* in exchange for a guarantee from the US, UK (lol) and Russia to respect its territorial sovereignty. Not exactly a treaty freely signed, but the invasion of Ukraine will serve as a reminder that you can't trust an imperialistic nation state not to **** you over just because they said they wouldn't.

Quote:
Then again, Germany is already trying to get Silesia saying the exact same thing so I guess it is the new way to grab land.


Not really new, the Germans have a long history of going after Silesia in this way. Frederick the Great tried it, kicking off a bloodbath for everyone involved. I seriously doubt Germany is trying to get land off another EU state, though. To what are you referring?

Quote:
Since we're boasting of past prognostications, I'll note that I alluded to this back in 2008 about the expansion of NATO and how we were taking in (or in talks to take in) nations that I didn't think we'd have the domestic resolve to defend if it came to it.


I believe NATO would protect anyone they let in to protect the alliance, if nothing else. Of course, Ukraine isn't in NATO and it's rather late for them them to join now.
#45 Mar 01 2014 at 3:08 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:


Quote:
Then again, Germany is already trying to get Silesia saying the exact same thing so I guess it is the new way to grab land.


Not really new, the Germans have a long history of going after Silesia in this way. Frederick the Great tried it, kicking off a bloodbath for everyone involved. I seriously doubt Germany is trying to get land off another EU state, though. To what are you referring?


I am hesitating to put it here, but I am referring to more recent, more covert attempts. Granted, the attempts are disguised as making Silesia region autonomous, but the movement has tacit approval from Merkel.

Germany gained a lot from making EU happen, but it is not a complete US clone just yet. And direct control is typically better than through a proxy; especially as weird as the one currently at the helm of POland.
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#46 Mar 01 2014 at 3:08 PM Rating: Excellent
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Pootie Poo doesn't have enough correctly equipped ground, air or naval forces in operational capacity yet to seriously threaten eastern europe. That's one reason he's been trying to sieze all the non state owned Oil resources in the area, to fund rearmament. Yukos, Sakhalin-2, etc. They have lots of people, many of which even have pretty good training. They have lots of perfectly servicable small arms, and field troop equipment. Their vehicles are in somewhat short supply, especially the larger capital assets and the ones that require specialized maintenance. Sure, they have a bunch of them, but there is only a small percentage of their total capacity that is actually operational. As they throw more money at them though, that could change.

The other issue that is going to doom Ukraine, or at least part of it, is their space industry. Also known as "our only ride into orbit at the moment". No one is going to risk anything that damages those facilities, and we're still 6-8 years away from getting our own manned launch capcity back unless we de-mothball the shuttles, but even that would take another 4 years given how far they took them apart. Putin want's the portions of the Soyuz assembly and launch mechanisms that wen't to Ukraine back, and we're probably going to just hand it right to them. Which immidiatly lets them start charging us more for access to space, which funds that same re-armanent he's been so keen on stepping up.

No, Putin won't likely make any major moves against eastern europe until 2018ish, when the bulk of the new T-99 main battle tanks are built, the bulk of the salvagable submarine fleet is back in service, the bulk of the air force is repaired and re-armed, and they get their helicopter carriers and that big ******* nimitz clone they are working on again built. He will probably keep snapping up former soviet states though under "protectorate" status. Because it's a kinder, gentler soviet union now. It will be interesting to see if he can avoid the tipping point and not "wake the sleeping giant".
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#47 Mar 01 2014 at 3:56 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
"Crimea River" was one of the examples used in the old EQ rules for an "illegal" character name due to puns or names forming sentences/phrases. Smiley: schooled

Really? Funny! I guess I never played with the character naming conventions enough. Though I did find out how hard it was to name a RIFT character one of The Many Names Of Our Hero.
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#48 Mar 01 2014 at 5:24 PM Rating: Good
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Kavekk wrote:
Timelordwho wrote:
If NATO does not intervene here, we will likely see an ugly bout of nuclear proliferation.


Yeah; relevant background for anyone that doesn't know it, Ukraine gave up its nuclear ******* in exchange for a guarantee from the US, UK (lol) and Russia to respect its territorial sovereignty. Not exactly a treaty freely signed, but the invasion of Ukraine will serve as a reminder that you can't trust an imperialistic nation state not to @#%^ you over just because they said they wouldn't.

Quote:
Then again, Germany is already trying to get Silesia saying the exact same thing so I guess it is the new way to grab land.


Not really new, the Germans have a long history of going after Silesia in this way. Frederick the Great tried it, kicking off a bloodbath for everyone involved. I seriously doubt Germany is trying to get land off another EU state, though. To what are you referring?

Quote:
Since we're boasting of past prognostications, I'll note that I alluded to this back in 2008 about the expansion of NATO and how we were taking in (or in talks to take in) nations that I didn't think we'd have the domestic resolve to defend if it came to it.


I believe NATO would protect anyone they let in to protect the alliance, if nothing else. Of course, Ukraine isn't in NATO and it's rather late for them them to join now.


Yep, as a fun fact, Ukraine had more nukes in the 90s than Britain, France, and China combined. If it hadn't ceded them to Russia, Russia wouldn't be looking at them licking their chops.

Yanukovych was the one who refused NATO admission. This means that it might not be too late for their admission to NATO, if the new gov't moves quickly. If they do accept and NATO offers a credible threat, the value of the partnership rises for the rest of Eastern Europe, as well as moves the whole region toward further Euro centralization.
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#49 Mar 01 2014 at 5:40 PM Rating: Good
Every time a Western leader refers to the occupation of part of the Ukraine by Russian soldiers as a 'potential threat' to Ukraine's sovereignty, Putin takes a shot of vodka. The current NATO strategy is to give him alcohol poisoning.
#50 Mar 01 2014 at 6:12 PM Rating: Good
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Putin is immune to alcohol poisoning, like all Russians. A little water never hurt anyone.
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#51 Mar 01 2014 at 6:43 PM Rating: Excellent
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A little water never hurt anyone.
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